Sunday, November 9, 2008

Flea Market

What are all the hawkers going to do now that there is no more Obama campaign? Gotta keep the movement alive, what with all the jobs in auto manufacturing and finance going down the drain.

Sights from the flea market:
  • "I voted for change" t-shirts
  • Stacks of Wednesday's times, sold by a young African-American kid. $10 a copy.
  • Large glossy photographs, caption "President Barack Obama." That was fast.
Looks like Prince William and Ms. Kate Middleton may have some competition...

The Wrong Incentives

Risk-free rates (Treasury yields) are very low, including long-term yields. This discourages saving.

Risk premia are at ridiculous levels. This discourages investment.

So US consumers are incented to buy now rather than save, and US companies are incented not to invest. Consumers in other countries do not face this issue to the same degree as we do because their government yields are typically higher. The spike in the dollar exacerbates the issue. This is exactly the opposite of the adjustment that has to take place. Does the economy currently present exactly the wrong incentives for recovery?